RIM's fourth quarter will compact aspot of good news there was no profit warning, therefore may be thefinancial are on track. The bad news: analysts say the BlackBerry 7smartphones are "aging rapidly" and the outlook from RIMcould be dismal. In other words, fiscal 2013 could be a replay of thepast year. RIM is falling on for yet another big release to save theday. This time, RIM's BlackBerry superphones are the next big thing.Add it up and RIM is stuck in a boom-bust cycle and it is unclearwhether new CEO Thorsten Heins' until-to-be-outlined strategy willsave the day.

In the meantime, BlackBerry 7 phonesare losing momentum. Add it up and RIM is going to face inventoryworries, higher marketing disbursements, and further market shareerosion until BlackBerry 10 devices launch in the fall. "BB7devices are now close to six months old, and our checks suggest thatthe initial enthusiasm post release has tailed off," said Kvaal."We model 11M unit volumes in F4Q, at the low end of theguidance scope."

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Kvaal is expecting a "direoutlook." Morgan Stanley analyst Ehud Gelblum had similarworries. Gelblum is assuming that BlackBerry analysts drained just 1million new units from RIM's inventory levels. Gelblum said that RIMmay ship 10.1 million units in the fourth quarter, down from 14.1million in the third quarter. CIBC analyst Todd Coupland was a bitmore constructive. Coupland said that international demand seems inline with expectations for the BlackBerry Bold and Curve. Couplandsaid that shipment data will be critical for RIM. He's expecting RIMto project shipments of 10.4 million in the first quarter. Sutherlandargued that RIM lacks the content, ecosystem, and devices to compete.Pending Heins' master plan, it is difficult to argue againstSutherland's take.